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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a type of apology. We regret we got wrong your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the largest turnaround wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

But this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The pool of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners declining and recent also-rans ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked his QB to use his mobility more often.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still